The betting markets are currently giving McCain about a 16% chance of winning. If McCain wins then let's assume that all things considered Palin has a 40% chance of becoming president (either if McCain dies in office--a 33% possibility given his age and history of melanoma--or as his successor). If McCain loses many people suggest Palin could be a future Republican leader (in fact, most Republicans have labeled her "the future of the GOP") so let's put her chances of becoming president in that scenario at 12%. Thus:
Pr(Sarah Palin as President) = .16*.4 + .84*.12 = 16.48 > 16% = Pr(John McCain as President).
Uh-oh.
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